IDC: WP share to double by 2018, Android and iOS to fall
IDC has outed its traditional forecast report for the state of smartphone shipments for the next four years. This latest report comes as a amendment to the previous one issued in May, but you should still take it with a grain of salt considering the analyst company's track record of how accurate its long-term predictions are. Not to mention that the whole idea that you can give a four-year prediction for a market as dynamic as this one is rather flawed.
IDC predicts that in 2018, Windows Phone will enjoy 5.6% market share - a jump of 2.9 percent points from its 2014 position. This year, as per IDC's data, saw 35 million devices running Windows phone sold, while in 2018 this number will jump to 105 million.
Android and iOS will stay relatively unchanged. Google's mobile operating system will drop slightly from 82.3% market share in 2014 to 80% in 2018. Apple's iOS market share will drop by 1 percent point, as currently iPhones number around 178 million, while in 2018 they will be 240 million. This is based on the assumption that global smartphone shipments will jump from 1.288 billion to 1.873 billion in 2018.
However, these estimations are based on current market trends and could be wildly inaccurate as the smartphone market is rapidly changing. Let's see if IDC will have a better luck with its long-term predictions this time.